India-EFTA TEPA: ASSOCHAM Sees Up to 2 Million Jobs by 2040

24 October 2026: India-EFTA TEPA could support one million to two million direct and indirect jobs in India by 2040, according to an assessment by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM), reported on 16 October 2026. The forecast puts investment-led employment at the centre of the trade pact’s second year, with opportunities extending beyond tariff concessions.

The European Free Trade Association comprises Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. Its Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement with India entered into force on 1 October 2025, following signature on 10 March 2024. Screen Print India’s TEPA implementation overview explains the agreement’s scope.

India-EFTA TEPA investment and jobs targets

The chamber’s employment forecast differs from the treaty’s formal objective. Article 7.1 of the agreement says EFTA states shall aim to increase foreign direct investment from their investors into India by USD 50 billion within ten years, followed by another USD 50 billion over the succeeding five years.

The same article sets an objective of one million jobs within fifteen years of entry into force. A footnote defines these as direct employment in India clearly attributable to that foreign investment. ASSOCHAM’s higher estimate includes indirect employment.

The USD 100 billion figure therefore describes an investment-promotion objective, not money already invested or an automatic government payment. Screen Print India’s original TEPA signing report provides background on those commitments.

An investment subcommittee must review progress no later than five and ten years after entry into force, followed by a final review at fifteen years. 

What does the agreement offer textile exporters?

EFTA’s official chapter-by-chapter factsheet says the member states commit to maintaining duty-free access for industrial products, fish and other marine products originating in India. Agricultural products receive separately negotiated concessions.

For textile and apparel businesses, origin qualification matters alongside the tariff offer. Exporters need to check the applicable product-specific rule and documentation before promising a buyer preferential duties. An Indian shipping address alone does not establish that a product qualifies.

The practical issues connect with Screen Print India’s coverage of the AEPC rules-of-origin seminar, which examined tariff claims, sourcing decisions and export records. Businesses must apply the requirements of the particular agreement they use.

Manufacturing, clean energy and MSME partnerships

Investment cooperation has moved into sector-level discussions. At the second Prosperity Summit in New Delhi on 7 October 2026, government and business representatives discussed advanced manufacturing, healthcare and life sciences, maritime industries, and clean energy.

The treaty also provides for cooperation on joint ventures involving micro, small and medium enterprises, vocational training and industrial capabilities. These provisions offer routes for smaller suppliers to seek partners, but they do not guarantee contracts or investment for individual businesses.

Technology cooperation needs equally careful wording. The agreement explicitly states that technology collaboration does not require technology transfer.

What would turn the forecast into results?

The test is whether investment promotion produces funded projects, operating businesses and attributable employment. ASSOCHAM’s forecast describes what the partnership could achieve by 2040. For exporters, the immediate task is narrower: identify suitable buyers, verify tariff eligibility and build the records needed to claim the agreement’s benefits.